Déjà Vu? Short-Term Training in Germany 1980-1992 and 2000-2003
Friday, 15.5.09, 11:15-12:15, Raum 404, Eckerstr. 1
Short-term training has recently become the largest active labor market program in Germany regarding the number of participants. Little is known on the effectiveness of different types of short-term training and on their long-run effects. This paper estimates the effects of short-term training programs in West Germany starting in the time period 1980 to 1992 and 2000 to 2003 regarding the two outcomes employment and participation in longer training programs. \nWe find that short-term training shows mostly persistently positive and often significant employment effects. Short-term training focusing on testing and monitoring search effort shows slightly smaller effects compared to the pure training variant. The lock-in periods lasted longer in the 1980s and 1990s compared to the early 2000s. Short-term training results in higher future participation in longer training programs and this effect was much stronger for the earlier time period.
On the martingale property of certain local martingales
Friday, 10.7.09, 11:15-12:15, Raum 404, Eckerstr. 1
Dynamical State and Parameter Estimation
Friday, 24.7.09, 11:15-12:15, Raum 404, Eckerstr. 1
In building models of complex systems and networks, one has sparse measurements from which one must infer unknown parameters at the nodes and links as well as the unobserved state of the system if predictions are to be made. When these systems are nonlinear chaotic oscillations of the networks impede the ability to achieve these goals, and one must regularize the procedure to stabilize the transmission of information from the observations to the model. We will discuss this in a general context and demonstrate how the solution works in practice for neurobiological systems, in the context of electronic circuits, and for a small geophysical model.